The scale of the electric two-wheeler battery swap market in 2025 may reach 132.6 billion to drive 10.9GWh of incremental demand for lithium batteries

In 2020, the national two-wheeler power exchange market will require a total of 57,000 power exchange cabinets. EVTank predicts that by 2025, the total demand for two-wheeler power exchange cabinets will reach 670,000. It is estimated that by 2025, the demand for lithium-ion batteries for two-wheeled vehicles will reach 10.9 GWh, of which the demand for lithium batteries at the To C end will reach 7.1 GWh, accounting for more than 65%.

Recently, the research institute EVTank, Ivy Economic Research Institute and China Battery Industry Research Institute jointly released the “White Paper on the Development of China’s Electric Two-wheeled Vehicle Battery sharing Industry (2021)”. The white paper data shows that in different application areas of two-wheeled vehicles, There is a big difference in the penetration rate of electricity services. Among them, the To B end such as sharing and takeaway has higher requirements for operating efficiency, and the standardization of the supporting lithium-ion batteries is relatively high, and the adaptability is strong. The corresponding penetration rate of the exchange service Significantly higher than the field of individual users. In 2020, with the support of the battery swap service platform and the operator’s own battery swap platform in the shared sector, the penetration rate of the battery swap service has reached 100%; the takeaway sector has long battery life requirements, but the power swap network is not perfect, Influencing factors such as inadequate follow-up services, the current penetration rate of battery replacement is only about 25%; To C end users’ car frequency is lower than that of To B end, and coupled with the fact that the consumption habit of battery sharing has not yet formed, the current penetration rate of battery replacement is only Around 4%. With the completion of the power swap network, the gradual establishment of a power swap standard system, and the cultivation of power swap consumption habits, coupled with the mandatory requirements of “centralized charging” and “no-home charging” introduced by various regions, China’s two There is still a lot of room for increase in the penetration rate of wheel-bike swap services

In 2019, the Ministry of Emergency Management, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the State Administration of Market Supervision jointly issued the “Notice on Further Strengthening the Fire Safety Management of Electric Bicycles”, proposing to strengthen the two-wheeled electric bicycles. Safety control and prevention of fire incidents have resulted in the rapid development of the two-wheeler power exchange market. With the growth of the power swap user group and the increase in the penetration rate of power swaps, the demand for power swap cabinet laying in the two-wheeler power swap market has increased simultaneously. In 2020, the national two-wheeler power swap market will require a total of 57,000 power swap cabinets. EVTank predicts that by 2025, the total demand for power exchange cabinets for two-wheelers will reach 670,000.

At present, battery suppliers in the field of two-wheeler battery swapping mainly include Ningde Times, Tianjin Lishen, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Penghui Energy, BYD and other companies. According to EVTank statistics, lithium-ion batteries for battery replacement are gradually changing from the previous ones. The li-ion battery is transformed into a lithium iron phosphate battery with higher safety. The growth momentum of lithium battery demand in the battery swap market mainly comes from the To B end, such as sharing and takeaway. However, the To C end has a large number of users, and the driving force for the market will gradually appear. In the future, it will become the main growth in the demand for lithium batteries in the battery swap market. Extremely, mainstream power swap service providers such as e-power swap, Xiaoha power swap, and Harbin power swap all plan to increase their layout in the To C-end power swap market. EVTank predicts that by 2025, the demand for lithium-ion batteries for two-wheeled vehicle replacement will reach 10.9GWh, and the demand for lithium-ion batteries at the To C end will reach 7.1GWh, accounting for more than 65%.

The scale of the battery swap market is mainly composed of the battery market, the battery swap cabinet market and the battery swap service fee market scale. At present, the two-wheeler battery swap market is still in the early stage of development, and the market size is small. In 2020, China’s two-wheeler battery swap The market size is approximately 16.18 billion yuan. EVTank predicts that with the increase in the penetration rate of battery swap services and the growth of the battery swap user group, the scale of China’s two-wheeler swap market is expected to exceed 100 billion in 2025 and become a new “blue ocean market.”

Affected by factors such as low penetration rate, small scale, high initial investment, and immature operation models, some of the power swap service providers in the two-wheeler power swap market in China have not yet achieved profitability. As power swap service providers explore business models, Continuous improvements and adjustments in the use of smart equipment, big data analysis, refined operations, asset management, automated operation and maintenance, etc., are expected to turn losses into profits through economies of scale in the future.

In the “White Paper on the Development of China’s Electric Two-wheeled Vehicle Battery Exchange Industry (2021)”, EVTank first made a detailed comparative analysis of the business model and economic benefits of charging and replacing electricity, and then conducted a detailed comparative analysis of the installation and Exchange service penetration rate, scale of the exchange market, main customer groups, characteristics of the exchange market, competition pattern of exchange platforms, conducted in-depth research, and then selected representative exchange platforms and in-depth analysis of the layout of their exchange cabinets , Operating conditions and the upstream and downstream layout of the industrial chain. Finally, EVTank analyzed and forecasted the development trend of the electric two-wheeler market, the electric two-wheeler power swap market and the power swap platform competition in the next five years.