The beginning of 2022: the general increase of more than 15%, the price increase of power batteries spreads across the entire industry chain

Summary

Several executives of power battery companies said that the price of power batteries has generally risen by more than 15%, and some customers have increased by 20%-30%.

At the beginning of 2022, the sentiment of price increases in the whole industry chain of power batteries has spread, and the price increases have been heard one after another.

In terms of terminal performance, the prices of new energy vehicles have increased collectively. The price of new energy vehicles has always been strong, and finally broke the defense, setting off a large-scale price increase, ranging from thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.

Since the first round of price hikes at the end of last year, the new energy vehicle market has ushered in the second round of price hikes. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 20 car companies have announced price increases for their new energy models, including Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, SAIC Roewe, Volkswagen, etc., covering independent, foreign-funded, joint-venture and new forces, involving as many as several models. ten.

For example, BYD announced on February 1 that it will adjust its official guide prices for new energy models related to its Dynasty and Ocean. i, Yuan Pro, Han EV/DM, Tang DM-i, 2021 Tang DM, Dolphin and other hot-selling models, the increase is 1,000-7,000 yuan.

The main driving factors behind the price hike in the new energy vehicle market are: first, the subsidy has declined by 30%, reducing 5,400 yuan for bicycles over 400km that meet the standard; second, the lack of cores and high raw material prices have resulted in high costs; third, , the price of power battery is transmitted, and the main engine factory is forced to adjust the price, and finally has no choice but to transmit the cost pressure to the end market.

The price of power batteries generally rose by more than 15%. A number of power battery company executives told Gaogong Lithium that the price of power batteries has generally risen by more than 15%, and some customers have increased by 20%-30%.

“It can’t last if it doesn’t rise” has become the most helpless but also the most real voice of battery companies.

Since 2021, the overall domestic new energy industry chain has been in a state of tight supply and demand balance, and the prices of major lithium battery materials have continued to rise, driving the cost of power batteries to rise sharply.

Last year, battery companies took and digested most of the upward pressure on raw material costs. In 2022, the shortage of raw materials and the price increase will not only not be suppressed, but will intensify. The cost pressure of battery companies is huge, and it is also helpless to transmit it downward to car companies.

“It won’t work if it doesn’t rise. In 2022, the cost of power batteries will increase by at least 50% compared with last year.” The person in charge of a battery company bluntly said that the raw materials for stockpiling have long been used up, and the prices of raw materials are still rising. Taking into account the funds for capacity expansion, the pressure on battery companies is really high. is very large.

The rally in raw materials is “crazy”. In 2022, the prices of the four main materials, nickel/cobalt/lithium/copper/aluminum, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, VC, etc. will rise collectively, and some auxiliary materials have risen several times compared with the beginning of the year, showing a “jumping” pattern .

Taking lithium carbonate, which is the most active in price increases, as an example, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on New Year’s Day in 2022 is 300,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 454% from the average price of 55,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of last year. The latest news, as of now, the comprehensive quotation of battery-grade lithium carbonate has reached 420,000-465,000 yuan / ton, and the market has reported that “customers who come to purchase lithium carbonate do not ask the price, they will get it when they have the goods”, which shows the degree of shortage of supply and demand.

Industry data shows that for pure electric vehicles, when the price of lithium carbonate rises to 300,000 yuan/ton, the cost of each pure electric vehicle rises by about 8,000 yuan; when the price of lithium carbonate rises to 400,000 yuan/ton, the The cost of an electric vehicle has risen by about 11,000 yuan.

Based on this, the unanimous judgment in the industry is that the price of raw materials continues to rise, causing the cost of power batteries to increase beyond the maximum pressure range of battery companies, and the cost pressure is huge.

In fact, due to the increase in raw material prices, the theoretical cost of cells and battery systems has risen by more than 30% earlier than 2021Q3, even taking into account the impact of long-term cooperation, bargaining power, purchase volume, account period, etc. on the actual purchase cost, and Factors such as battery product performance, yield, and grouping rate increase to hedge against the rising pressure of some material costs, and the cost of rising raw material prices transmitted to the power battery side also increases by about 20%-25%.

However, since 2022, raw materials have continued to rise, and the cost of raw materials at the cell end has generally increased by more than 50% compared with last year, which is even more miserable for most battery companies that are already on the verge of profitability in 2021. “Showdown” with OEMs, seeking to digest some of the pressure downstream.

For third- and fourth-tier battery companies with small size and weak financial strength, it is even more miserable. They are about to face the embarrassing situation that they cannot get the goods and cannot produce with orders.

However, even the head battery companies with large scale and strong bargaining power cannot match the speed of raw material price increase due to their long-term price locking and raw material locking capabilities. The price of batteries has also increased to a certain extent. For example, BYD announced as early as November last year that the price of some battery products should be increased by no less than 20%.

At present, the rising tide of battery prices has shifted from digital and small power to power and energy storage, and second- and third-tier companies have advanced to leading companies, and have been fully passed on to downstream and even terminal markets.

Facing a new round of price hikes, the entire industry chain of new energy vehicles is actively exploring cost reduction ideas and coping strategies to minimize the impact and ensure the sustained and rapid growth of the new energy vehicle industry.

In the face of the spread of price increases, the most important thing for OEMs is of course to comprehensively promote cost reduction in all dimensions, including developing new technologies with battery companies, improving product technical indicators, forming differentiated competitiveness, and improving The overall competitiveness of the product market, etc.

In addition, some OEMs choose to take the initiative to slow down the launch of new models, in order to reduce losses, consider actively reducing the production and sales of models with serious losses, and instead promote mid-to-high-end models with high intelligence and better profits.

For example, the strategy of a car company is not to increase the price of core models, but to turn intelligent optional products into standard equipment, so as to offset the pressure of rising costs and reduce consumers’ resistance to price increases.

For some A00-class OEMs, their strategies are different. For example, Great Wall’s A00-class best-selling models Black Cat and White Cat took the initiative to stop taking orders. Another A00-level OEM said that in the future, it may voluntarily give up subsidies, reduce product battery life and product positioning, and save sales by benchmarking Hongguang Mini EV.

For battery companies, all efforts should be made to reduce internal costs and improve efficiency. Some battery companies admit that there is not much room for cost reduction in product technology, and how to improve production efficiency and quality becomes the key; at the same time, domestic substitution in low-demand chips and other fields is also accelerating.

On the whole, the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the high cost of power batteries is a foregone conclusion. Power battery companies should gradually break the simple buying and selling relationship in the past, create a new type of partnership, carry out strategic cooperation on a larger scale and at a deeper level, promote the coordinated development of the supply chain, and reshape the new supply chain model.

In terms of raw material strategy, power battery companies are also accelerating the upstream raw material locking strategy. By signing supply guarantee agreements with suppliers, investing in shares, establishing joint ventures, and actively exploring new suppliers, penetrating procurement of key raw materials, layout of mineral resources, and layout of battery recycling , and comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of the enterprise supply chain.